Independent · Cycle research
A written record of where seven markets sit in their cycles.
Each issue dates the current nominal cycle for the instruments below, states the count, and shows the work. Where the count is uncertain, the letter says so.
01 — Methodology
How the counts are made
Hurst's principles of nominality and synchronicity, executed with Bressert's timing bands. CMT-informed, disclosed in full.
Every count in this letter descends from a single assumption: that price is the sum of a small number of nominal periodicities whose troughs synchronise, and that those periodicities are stable enough to be dated in advance and falsified in public.
Every count descends from one assumption: that price is the sum of a small number of nominal periodicities whose troughs synchronise, and that those periodicities can be dated in advance and falsified in public.
01 / NOMINAL MODEL
Hurst's nominal set, unmodified
The 18-year, 54-month, 18-month, 40-week, 20-week, 40-day and 20-day periodicities are used as published. No curve-fitted lengths, no proprietary "discovered" cycles. Where an instrument does not respect a nominal band, it is reported as not respecting it.
Published periodicities used as published. No curve-fitted lengths, no proprietary "discovered" cycles.
02 / TIMING BANDS
Bressert timing, stated as a window
Troughs are published as dated windows with a stated tolerance, never as a single day. A window that closes without a trough is recorded as a miss and carried forward in the accuracy log rather than quietly re-dated.
Troughs are published as dated windows with a tolerance, never a single day. A window that closes empty is recorded as a miss.
03 / TRANSLATION
Translation before conclusion
Right or left translation of the prior completed cycle is measured before any statement about the next one. Translation is the only directional inference the letter draws from cycle structure; everything else is timing.
The only directional inference drawn from cycle structure. Everything else in the letter is timing.
04 / FALSIFICATION
Each count carries its invalidation
No count is published without the price or date that would break it. When a count breaks, the following issue opens with the break rather than burying it. The letter contains no signals, no entries, and no exits.
No count is published without the price or date that would break it. Breaks open the next issue.
7
Instruments counted, and no more
Instruments
0
Trade recommendations issued
Recommendations
1
Author, named, writing in public
Named author
02 — Coverage
Seven instruments, counted every week
Coverage is deliberately narrow. Each instrument has a documented nominal set and a count maintained without gaps.
Instruments are added only when the data supports a documented nominal set. None are planned.
Coverage is deliberately narrow. None planned.
03 — Cycle Dashboard
Where each instrument stands today
Counts withheld this week
In preparation
SAMPLE — ILLUSTRATIVE
Cycle age is elapsed time, not a forecast.
ANCHORS AS OF [DATE]
Last verified against settlement data.
OPENS [DATE]
Structure shown; values follow.
Cycle counts unavailable
The data behind the cycle ages has not reconciled against settlement since [DATE]. Rather than publish ages that may be a day or two out, the dashboard shows the anchors and stops there.
Anchors — the dated troughs each count runs from — are unchanged and shown below. Nominal lengths are unchanged. Only the arithmetic between them is withheld, and it returns when the reconciliation does.
Anchors as of[DATE]
Counts last publishedISSUE NO. —
Expected returnNEXT ISSUE
Withholding is recorded the same way a missed window is.
Opens [DATE]
The table goes live once the reconciliation runs automatically every morning — not before.
A dashboard that is right four days a week is worse than no dashboard. Until it is right seven, the letter carries the counts and this page carries the structure.
What it will show
Cycle age against each nominal length
The dated anchor each count runs from
Translation of the last completed cycle
The next trough window and its tolerance
Get the letter until then →
Cycle counts unavailable
The data behind the cycle ages has not reconciled against settlement since [DATE]. Rather than publish ages that may be a day or two out, the dashboard shows the anchors and stops there.
Expected returnNEXT ISSUE
Opens [DATE]
The table goes live once the reconciliation runs automatically every morning — not before. A dashboard that is right four days a week is worse than no dashboard.
Get the letter until then →
Instrument
Nominal
Cycle age
Cycle age — not published
Anchor trough
Next window
Reading
Elapsed against nominal
RT / LTTranslation of last completed cycle
Window bound not plotted — tolerance differs by instrument
Sample values, illustrative only. Ages are calendar-dated from the anchor trough and reconciled against settlement each morning.
Anchors are unchanged and verifiable from the dated letters in which they were first published.
The same table, populated, ships when the dashboard opens.
Sample values, illustrative only. Ages are calendar-dated from the anchor trough.
Anchors are unchanged and verifiable from the dated letters in which they were published.
The same cards, populated, ship when the dashboard opens.
04 — Research
Recent letters
Published on Substack. This list is pulled from the feed; slots below are placeholders.
Full archive →
[Headline]
[Standfirst — one or two lines drawn from the letter's opening.]
[INSTRUMENTS]
[Headline]
[Standfirst — one or two lines drawn from the letter's opening.]
[INSTRUMENTS]
[Headline]
[Standfirst — one or two lines drawn from the letter's opening.]
[INSTRUMENTS]
[Headline]
[Standfirst — one or two lines drawn from the letter's opening.]
[INSTRUMENTS]
Full archive →
05 — Subscribe
The letter arrives by email, free.
The weekly letter and the published counts. No sequences, no upsell mail, no referral programme.
Delivered by Substack. One email a week. Unsubscribe in one click.
What the free tier includes
The weekly letter
INCLUDED
Published cycle counts
INCLUDED
The dated invalidation for each count
Dated invalidation per count
INCLUDED
Hit-or-miss record when a window closes
INCLUDED
A paid tier may follow. It is not being sold, priced, or dated here.
06 — About
Who writes it
King Nuggets is written by one person, under their own name, and the method is the whole of the claim.
Every count is dated in advance and published carrying the price or date that would break it. When a window closes it is recorded as a hit or a miss, whichever it was, and that record stands. The letter contains no signals, no entries, and no exits.
Every count is dated in advance and published carrying the price or date that would break it. When a window closes it is recorded as a hit or a miss, whichever it was. No signals, no entries, no exits.
Credential
CMT
Chartered Market Technician
King Nuggets is not a registered investment adviser.
Disclaimer
Read this before subscribing. It is the shortest honest version.
01 / NOT ADVICE
King Nuggets publishes research, not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security, and no communication constitutes an advisory relationship.
Research, not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
02 / CYCLES FAIL
Cycle analysis is probabilistic and frequently wrong. Nominal periodicities drift, invert, and disappear. A published window is an expectation, not an outcome.
Cycle analysis is probabilistic and frequently wrong. A published window is an expectation, not an outcome.
03 / NO PERFORMANCE
No returns are claimed, shown, or implied anywhere in this publication. The record covers timing only, and past timing accuracy does not predict future accuracy.
No returns are claimed, shown, or implied. The record covers timing only.
04 / YOUR RISK
You are solely responsible for your own decisions and any losses arising from them. Consider your circumstances, and consult a licensed professional where appropriate.
You are solely responsible for your own decisions and any losses arising from them.